Terror at Sea and Abroad
Stripped of its surrogates, Iran has returned to the weapon it has always kept closest, the threat to global commerce. From November 2023 to mid-2025, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant ships in the Red Sea, sank four and killed at least eight sailors. Since February 28th of, 2026, Iran has taken on the task itself. The maritime analytics firm Windward has recorded 74 attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the most recent just this week. Together, roughly 175 commercial ships have been struck in under three years – where is that reporting and outrage? This month, the Houthis opened a new front at the Bab al-Mandeb, proving they are not a spent force, but showing they are the last card Tehran has left to play.
The threat has also reached Britain. On September 27th, police arrested five men near RAF Fairford, the base American bombers used to strike Iranian missile sites, on suspicion of preparing an act of terrorism. The Revolutionary Guard had declared in July that any such base was a legitimate target. The suspects are out on bail, and Tehran denies involvement, but British Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently said there are “strong indications” of Iranian involvement. Most recently, we have Flydubai flight 1073 with 174 passengers headed to Tel Aviv, which nearly ended in tragedy – the copilot’s intentions are still being investigated, but a regime that loses its proxies abroad, it seems, simply rents new ones closer to the target.
The War at Home
The clearest measure of a regime’s weakness is how it treats its own people. In January, protests driven by economic collapse were met with live ammunition. The Human Rights Activists News Agency has verified 7,007 deaths by name, including 236 minors, with more than 11,000 additional cases under investigation. Medical sources cited by The Guardian place the true toll above 30,000. More than 51,000 people were arrested. A government that must turn its guns on its own citizens to survive a winter is not projecting strength. It is confessing fear.
Who Is the Aggressor?
Critics describe this conflict as an American war of aggression. They raise one fair point. The opening strikes came while negotiators were still at the table. But this war did not begin in February or 2026. It began in November 1979, when the Islamic Republic seized an American embassy and made “Death to America” a fixture of state ceremony. What changed in 2026 is that the United States finally responded at the source.
Iran’s proxies seek no ambiguity. Hamas’s 1988 charter calls for Israel’s obliteration and invokes a religious tradition about killing them in Israel and abroad. Hezbollah’s 1985 founding Open Letter names America, France, and Israel as enemies and calls for Israel’s eradication. The Houthis display their creed on their banner: God is great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam.
Their conduct at home matches those words in the oppression of minorities, women, and anything deemed “unholy, forbidden, or corrupting”, which is a blank canvas for suppression. For example, in 2023, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah told his followers that gay men should be killed, even for a single act. In early 2024, Houthi courts sentenced more than 20 people to death on homosexuality charges, some by stoning. Iran itself still imposes the death penalty for same sex relations. These are armed theocracies that reject the West precisely because of its freedoms. It is difficult to claim the role of victim in a war one has been waging for 47 years.
The Genocide Argument
This brings us to the more theatrical corner of the debate. A vocal group of American activists and commentators has concluded that defeating the Revolutionary Guard amounts to genocide. One genocide prevention institute issued a “red flag alert” in the first week of the war, acknowledged in the same statement that the campaign did not appear to be genocide, and then accused the United States of genocide against transgender Americans for good measure. Within a month, Tehran’s foreign ministry had adopted the term. The irony is hard to miss. The regime that shot thousands of its own citizens in January is now lecturing the world on genocide, and some Americans are nodding along.
Not every critic is acting in bad faith. Civilians have died, and the U.S. president’s warning, however delivered, that “a whole civilization will die tonight” was reckless. Those issues deserve serious scrutiny, and a confident nation examines its own conduct, but genocide means the intent to destroy a people. The U.S. targets in this war are missile launchers, warships, and the commanders who ordered protesters shot. Ironically, many Iranians spent January under fire from the very same target.
What Tehran Wants Now
With its proxies broken, Iran’s objectives have narrowed to three. First, regime survival. Second, control of the Strait of Hormuz as its last significant bargaining chip. Third, a nuclear threshold it can dangle before negotiators without ever fully surrendering. Each of these goals is defensive. The regime that once set out to export revolution now exports disruption, just fast enough to buy time and just carefully enough to avoid a final reckoning.
The task for Washington and its partners is clear. Keep the American People and our allies informed. Keep the coalition intact, particularly the Gulf states whose cooperation made this campaign possible. Prevent the Houthis from becoming the next Hezbollah. Keep sanctions enforced and diplomatic channels open, so that Tehran understands both the cost of continuing and the path to stopping. Keep the pressure on a regime that has run out of other people to fight for it. For the first time since 1979, Tehran stands alone. There is no reason to give it cause to feel otherwise.
